By Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers (auth.), Amir AghaKouchak, David Easterling, Kuolin Hsu, Siegfried Schubert, Soroosh Sorooshian (eds.)
This publication presents a suite of the state of the art methodologies and methods instructed for detecting extremes, development research, accounting for nonstationarities, and uncertainties linked to severe worth research in a altering weather. This quantity is designed in order that it may be used because the basic reference at the to be had methodologies for research of weather extremes. in addition, the ebook addresses present hydrometeorologic worldwide facts units and their purposes for worldwide scale research of extremes. whereas the most target is to convey contemporary theoretical techniques, a number of case experiences on severe weather stipulations are supplied.
The e-book is appropriate for instructing in graduate classes within the disciplines of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth approach technology, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences.
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Additional info for Extremes in a Changing Climate: Detection, Analysis and Uncertainty
17)]. 12) are first applied instead of the likelihood ratio test. 2 lists the minimized negative log likelihood, along with the AIC and BIC values. Model (iv), with a quadratic trend in the location parameter and a linear trend in the log-transformed scale parameter, is selected by both the AIC and BIC. 161, in agreement with the AIC and BIC. 2. The fit appears reasonable according to a Q-Q plot (not shown) based on the same method as Fig. 2. W. Katz Maximum daily precipitation (mm) 100 80 60 40 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Fig.
So the question naturally arises of how the statistical theory of extreme values can be extended to the case of nonstationarity, the subject of the present chapter. Although the influence of global climate change on hydrologic extremes such as high stream flow can be quite difficult to detect (Villarini et al. 2009), it is straightforward to find hydrologic examples in which nonstationarity is present because of more local, direct human influence. In particular, Fig. 1 shows the annual time series of mean and peak flow at Mercer Creek, WA, a relatively small drainage basin experiencing a period of rapid urbanization starting about 1970.
Extremes 8:87–103 Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorological Soc 84:1205–1217 Venables WN, Ripley BD (2002) Modern applied statistics with S, 4th edn. Springer, New York Villarini G, Serinaldi F, Smith JA, Krajewski WF (2009) On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century. Water Resour Res 45:W08417. 1029/2008WR007645 Vogel RM, Yaindl C, Walter M (2011) Nonstationarity: flood magnification and recurrence reduction factors in the United States.