Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies by Conrad Carlberg

By Conrad Carlberg

Once they first instructed you that forecasting revenues will be a part of your activity, did you are feeling simply the tiniest little bit of panic? Did you momentarily reflect on consulting the telephone book for listings of "Psychics" or "Tea Leaf Readers" good, worry now not. Excel revenues Forecasting For Dummies might actually help expect the longer term with no incense or a crystal ball. Excel revenues Forecasting For Dummies indicates you ways to exploit the number 1 workbook software, Microsoft Excel, to foretell traits and destiny revenues according to anything now not relatively so ethereal-numbers. you employ info concerning the earlier to forecast the longer term. Excel presents every type of instruments that will help you do this, and this publication exhibits you ways to take advantage of them. From spotting why forecasting is an efficient inspiration to creating feel of exponential smoothing, Excel revenues Forecasting For Dummies has you coated. in case you have a easy clutch of ways to take advantage of Excel, you will be able to become aware of tips to decide upon and use the appropriate forecasting approach on your company select and set up info in lists, then deal with that information with pivot tables filter out lists and switch them into charts that illustrate what is going on locate relationships on your information Use Excel's research Toolpak function to create forecasts immediately, or enterprise into complex forecasts utilizing worksheet services achieve extra regulate over your forecasting and goal particular forms of predictions Use relocating averages and expect seasonal revenues Written through Conrad Carlberg, a nationally well-known professional on Excel who additionally has adventure in revenues and advertising, this pleasant advisor will get you up and working speedy and simply. you will soon be constructing a baseline you could chart and label, summarizing facts with pivot tables, making forecasts according to regression, realizing correlation, and gaining knowledge of how smoothing we could us make the most of our error. you will find your self belief on your skill to make revenues predictions has soared correct off the chart.

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After all, Excel just calculates — you’re expected to do the thinking. Putting moving averages to work for you You may already be familiar with moving averages. They have two main characteristics, as the name makes clear: They move. More specifically, they move over time. The first moving average may involve Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday; in that case, the second moving average would involve Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday; the third Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and so on. They’re averages.

If your most recent forecast turned out to be an overestimate, you adjust your next forecast downward. You don’t make these adjustments just by guessing. There are formulas that help out, and the ATP’s Exponential Smoothing tool can enter the formulas for you. Or you can roll your own formulas if you want. Turn to Chapter 15 to see how to do that. Figure 1-3 shows what you would forecast if your prior forecast (for July) was too low — then you boost your forecast for August. ), you cool your jets a little bit in your August forecast, as shown in Figure 1-4.

Autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) I mention autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) here not because this book is going to use it or even talk much about it. But if you’re going to do forecasting, some smart aleck will eventually ask you if you used ARIMA, and you should know how to reply. ARIMA is in part a forecasting method, and also a way of evaluating your baseline so that you can get quantitative evidence that supports using a regression approach, a moving-average approach, or a combination of both.

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