China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by Wenpu Li (auth.)

By Wenpu Li (auth.)

This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language financial system. it really is released two times a 12 months and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a learn venture on the heart for Macroeconomic study (CMR) at Xiamen college. in accordance with the CQMM version, the examine group forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas alternate. even as it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China. as well as supporting readers comprehend China’s fiscal development and coverage advisor, this ebook has 3 major ambitions: to aid readers comprehend China’s monetary functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2015

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Thirdly, although the potential growth rate will inevitably decline in the long run, China’s economy still has much space to sustainable growth. China can still sustain a potential growth rate of around 5–6 % per year in the next two decades. As long as the policies are appropriate, the potential growth rate in the next five or ten years is expected to return to the level of more than 7 %. For example, the government could further advance the market reform, increase the share of mixed-economy, exert efforts on promoting employment training, improve the educational level of employees, improve production technology, enhance labor productivity, and especially enhance the labor productivity of the tertiary industry and so on.

Based on the analysis above, our research team used CQMM model to simulate scenario that removing the ceiling of deposits interest rate may lead to higher interest rates. Furthermore, we made quantitative analysis on how interest rates liberalization would influence China’s economy with CQMM model which successfully revealed the mechanism of structure change in the past few years. 2 Policy Simulation Designs Our research team uses CQMM model to simulate the macroeconomic effects on removing the ceiling of deposits interest rate which would have caused a decrease in interest margin during 2012–2014.

61 % in the fourth quarter. 41 % at the end of the fourth quarter. 23 % points compared to 2014. 84 % and then remain stable. 2 Forecasts of Main Macroeconomic Indicators During 2015–2016 23 Fig. 7 The quarterly growth rates forecast of the gross fixed assets investment (on the basis of year-on-year). Note: FI_UR denotes the growth rate of the urban fixed assets investment (current price). 90 % points compared to 2014. 98 % in 2016. 86 % in the fourth quarter of 2015, which is the bottom value of this year.

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